Conspiracy in the Congo?

With all the attention given to the recent successful coups and violent coup effort seen in Guinea-Bissau, recent developments in the Democratic Republic of Congo are flying a bit under the radar. Signs of trouble first emerged when President Felix Tshisekedi abruptly departed the African Union summit in Addis Ababa. While exits may sometimes occur, Tshisekedi's departure was notable in that he was the current AU chairman. 

News soon spread that his exit  was connected to one of the very emphases of the AU meeting: coups d'etat. Presidential security adviser Francois Beya and an undisclosed number of military officers have reportedly been detained by the National Intelligence Agency. On Saturday, thousands of Republican Guard soldiers parolled Kinshasa, an overt display of stregnth by Tshisekedi.

Though details on the alleged plot are scarce, Beya's arrest could act as the latest move from the Tshisekedi regime to further reduce the influence of former president Joseph Kabila. Beya - nicknamed Mr. Security and widely seen as Congo's "intelligence strongman" has - been an important figure in the country's security and intelligence apparatus. Earning his stripes in Mobutu's National Security Council, Beya has served under every DRC president. 

More recently, he has been seen as the most prominent Kabila loyalist in the regime. His arrest could act as another move toward consolidating Tshisekedi's position, a campaign that overtly commenced in December 2020 when Tshisekedi demolished the power sharing arrangement he had crafted with the outgoing president. After gaining control of the parliament after threatening to dissolve it, prominent political veterans found themselves being targeted.

Jeanine Mobumba, speaker of the lower house, was removed in an impeachment vote. February 2021 saw the removal of long-time political heavyweight Alexis Thambwe Mwamba pushed from the Senate, while Prime Minister Sylvestre Ilunga Ilunkamba was replaced. Kabiila's brother Zoe was removed from his own post as governor of Tanganyika province. In the last week, Zoe Kabila has also been barred from traveling from the DRC while also facing questioning by the intelligence services. More recently, Kabila ally Albert Yuma has been replaced as the chairman of Gecamines, the country's state-controlled copper and cobalt mining company. In addition, Jean-Marc Kabund's more recent resignation from the parliament suggests potential rifts within Tshisekedi's own camp.

The arrests of prominent figures - such as Beya-  might very well signal the unraveling of coup conspiracies. However, such efforts are also a commonly-used tool for consolidating power in the absence of an actual plot.

​JP